Analysis and Comparison of Weibull Parameters for Wind Energy Potential Using Different Estimation Methods: A Case Study of Isparta Province in Turkey

Bulut A., BİNGÖL O.

Electric Power Components and Systems, vol.51, no.16, pp.1829-1845, 2023 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 51 Issue: 16
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.1080/15325008.2023.2210574
  • Journal Name: Electric Power Components and Systems
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Environment Index, INSPEC, Metadex, DIALNET, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Page Numbers: pp.1829-1845
  • Keywords: GUI, MRFO, numerical methods, statistical analysis, Weibull distribution, wind energy
  • Isparta University of Applied Sciences Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

In this study, the success of the numerical methods and a metaheuristic algorithm in parameter estimation of Weibull distribution, which is frequently used in wind energy applications, are compared. Numerical methods are Justus empirical method, moment method, graphical method, energy pattern factor method (EPM), energy trend method, maximum likelihood estimation method (MLE). The metaheuristic algorithm is manta ray foraging optimization method (MRFO). The wind data used in the study were recorded hourly in the Isparta region in the southwest of Turkey. A graphical user interface design has been made to easily perform the calculations in this study. The success of the methods was tested with four different statistical error analysis methods. According to the results of the analysis, the MRFO method was by far the most successful method. EPM and MLE methods were the most unsuccessful methods.