Research Information System
Environment, Development and Sustainability, 2025 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
Pesticides are used to preserve important assets like crops and human health against weeds, pests, viruses, and insects. High-level pesticide use is deemed dangerous due to the threats to the environment, ecological stability, and human health. The residue problem caused by improper application is quite significant in Türkiye. Therefore, employing an autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA (1, 1, 0)] model, the pesticide use in agriculture in Türkiye for the next ten years was calculated. Using data 1990–2020, the best model structure was constructed for this purpose. The model was validated for the last two years (2019–2020). When the observed and predicted pesticide usage levels were compared, the data revealed that the predicted levels were slightly higher (nearly 13% deviation) than the actual levels. Furthermore, the data indicated that pesticide use would have gradually increased to 3.6 kg/ha by 2030. Consequently, using pesticides with caution and prioritising practises and procedures that limit their potential impact are essential.